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Super-spreaders and the rate of transmission of the SARS virus

Identifieur interne : 001043 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 001042; suivant : 001044

Super-spreaders and the rate of transmission of the SARS virus

Auteurs : Michael Small [Hong Kong] ; C. K. Tse [Hong Kong] ; David M. Walker [Royaume-Uni]

Source :

RBID : PMC:7114355

Abstract

We describe a stochastic small-world network model of transmission of the SARS virus. Unlike the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed models of disease transmission, our model exhibits both geographically localised outbreaks and “super-spreaders”. Moreover, the combination of localised and long range links allows for more accurate modelling of partial isolation and various public health policies. From this model, we derive an expression for the probability of a widespread outbreak and a condition to ensure that the epidemic is controlled. Moreover, multiple simulations are used to make predictions of the likelihood of various eventual scenarios for fixed initial conditions. The main conclusions of this study are: (i) “super-spreaders” may occur even if the infectiousness of all infected individuals is constant; (ii) consistent with previous reports, extended exposure time beyond 3–5 days (i.e. significant nosocomial transmission) was the key factor in the severity of the SARS outbreak in Hong Kong; and, (iii) the spread of SARS can be effectively controlled by either limiting long range links (imposing a partial quarantine) or enforcing rapid hospitalisation and isolation of symptomatic individuals.


Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2006.01.021
PubMed: NONE
PubMed Central: 7114355


Affiliations:

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PMC:7114355

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Department of Electronic and Information Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong</aff>
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Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Macaulay Institute, Craigbuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, UK</aff>
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Corresponding author. Tel.: +852 2766 4744; fax: +852 2362 8439.
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<license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p>
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<abstract>
<p>We describe a stochastic small-world network model of transmission of the SARS virus. Unlike the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed models of disease transmission, our model exhibits both geographically localised outbreaks and “super-spreaders”. Moreover, the combination of localised and long range links allows for more accurate modelling of partial isolation and various public health policies. From this model, we derive an expression for the probability of a widespread outbreak and a condition to ensure that the epidemic is controlled. Moreover, multiple simulations are used to make predictions of the likelihood of various eventual scenarios for fixed initial conditions. The main conclusions of this study are: (i) “super-spreaders” may occur even if the infectiousness of all infected individuals is constant; (ii) consistent with previous reports, extended exposure time beyond 3–5 days (i.e. significant nosocomial transmission) was the key factor in the severity of the SARS outbreak in Hong Kong; and, (iii) the spread of SARS can be effectively controlled by either limiting long range links (imposing a partial quarantine) or enforcing rapid hospitalisation and isolation of symptomatic individuals.</p>
</abstract>
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<kwd>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)</kwd>
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<kwd>Transmission dynamics</kwd>
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<p>Communicated by H. Levine</p>
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